Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| November 21 2020 | 7075 | 36582 | 211 | 54 | 1783 | 2178 |
| November 22 2020 | 7182 | 36736 | 215 | 54 | 1707 | 2146 |
| November 23 2020 | 7250 | 36863 | 218 | 54 | 1708 | 2119 |
| November 24 2020 | 7336 | 37074 | 231 | 56 | 1710 | 2113 |
| November 25 2020 | 7479 | 37323 | 237 | 56 | 1614 | 2187 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 5.7 | 4.5% | 73 | 0.63% | 93 | 0.81% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 17.7 | 13.4% | 216 | 1.59% | 299 | 2.2% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 30.9 | 25% | 404 | 1.93% | 542 | 2.59% |
| 30-39 | 29 | 21.9 | 16.7% | 269 | 1.98% | 355 | 2.61% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 13.6 | 12.7% | 205 | 1.96% | 270 | 2.58% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 15.1 | 12.1% | 195 | 1.55% | 260 | 2.07% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 12.0 | 8.4% | 136 | 1.18% | 212 | 1.84% |
| 70+ | 3 | 8.4 | 7.2% | 116 | 1.11% | 156 | 1.49% |
| All ages | 143 | 125.3 | 100% | 1614 | 1.54% | 2187 | 2.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| November 21 2020 | 4175 | 22331 | 115 | 45 | 1089 | 1462 |
| November 22 2020 | 4255 | 22428 | 117 | 45 | 1032 | 1502 |
| November 23 2020 | 4304 | 22492 | 117 | 45 | 946 | 1504 |
| November 24 2020 | 4376 | 22581 | 120 | 47 | 938 | 1392 |
| November 25 2020 | 4455 | 22690 | 123 | 48 | 944 | 1369 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.9 | 3.3% | 31 | 0.4% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 6.4 | 7.5% | 71 | 0.84% | 104 | 1.24% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 14.7 | 15.7% | 148 | 2.08% | 210 | 2.95% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 18.9 | 18% | 170 | 2.02% | 247 | 2.94% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 17.3 | 16.5% | 156 | 2.01% | 246 | 3.17% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 15.1 | 17.1% | 161 | 1.66% | 222 | 2.29% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.1 | 12.1% | 114 | 1.36% | 164 | 1.95% |
| 70+ | 9 | 9.6 | 9.9% | 93 | 1.31% | 136 | 1.91% |
| All ages | 79 | 94.0 | 100% | 944 | 1.46% | 1369 | 2.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| November 21 2020 | 3212 | 14737 | 116 | 36 | 1159 | 1415 |
| November 22 2020 | 3250 | 14829 | 117 | 37 | 1122 | 1389 |
| November 23 2020 | 3307 | 14847 | 117 | 37 | 1123 | 1388 |
| November 24 2020 | 3345 | 14879 | 122 | 38 | 948 | 1354 |
| November 25 2020 | 3407 | 14958 | 125 | 39 | 766 | 1354 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.4 | 4.7% | 36 | 0.66% | 55 | 1.01% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 6.4 | 9.9% | 76 | 1.4% | 116 | 2.14% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 9.7 | 11.9% | 91 | 2.01% | 193 | 4.27% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 12.0 | 15.3% | 117 | 2.15% | 220 | 4.05% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 10.3 | 14.8% | 113 | 2.27% | 190 | 3.82% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 13.9 | 15.9% | 122 | 1.8% | 229 | 3.37% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 9.1 | 14.2% | 109 | 1.72% | 189 | 2.98% |
| 70+ | 10 | 10.1 | 13.3% | 102 | 1.61% | 162 | 2.56% |
| All ages | 62 | 75.0 | 100% | 766 | 1.69% | 1354 | 2.99% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| November 21 2020 | 7287 | 39084 | 138 | 32 | 1454 | 1896 |
| November 22 2020 | 7340 | 39279 | 139 | 32 | 1322 | 1871 |
| November 23 2020 | 7401 | 39430 | 142 | 32 | 1217 | 1866 |
| November 24 2020 | 7500 | 39690 | 151 | 33 | 1274 | 1874 |
| November 25 2020 | 7651 | 39989 | 155 | 34 | 1366 | 1818 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.0 | 3.4% | 46 | 0.39% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 9.7 | 8.8% | 120 | 0.72% | 173 | 1.05% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 23.3 | 20.9% | 286 | 1.34% | 389 | 1.83% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 18.4 | 17.3% | 237 | 1.74% | 304 | 2.24% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 14.9 | 12.4% | 169 | 1.24% | 226 | 1.66% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 16.6 | 14.4% | 197 | 1.39% | 280 | 1.97% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 14.4 | 11.9% | 162 | 1.14% | 201 | 1.42% |
| 70+ | 19 | 13.9 | 10.9% | 149 | 1.15% | 189 | 1.45% |
| All ages | 151 | 115.1 | 100% | 1366 | 1.16% | 1818 | 1.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| November 21 2020 | 24654 | 266695 | 726 | 75 | 4698 | 6380 |
| November 22 2020 | 24866 | 268134 | 729 | 75 | 4276 | 6343 |
| November 23 2020 | 25006 | 269472 | 733 | 75 | 3951 | 6209 |
| November 24 2020 | 25755 | 270881 | 742 | 77 | 4407 | 6261 |
| November 25 2020 | 25990 | 271803 | 744 | 77 | 4270 | 6034 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 19.4 | 5.2% | 224 | 0.37% | 294 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 33 | 62.7 | 17.8% | 758 | 1.07% | 1065 | 1.5% |
| 20-29 | 52 | 81.0 | 22.7% | 970 | 0.93% | 1402 | 1.35% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 61.9 | 16.4% | 701 | 0.92% | 980 | 1.28% |
| 40-49 | 35 | 50.4 | 13.9% | 592 | 0.9% | 819 | 1.25% |
| 50-59 | 27 | 36.4 | 10.8% | 462 | 0.7% | 655 | 1% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 28.3 | 7.7% | 330 | 0.6% | 469 | 0.86% |
| 70+ | 19 | 19.3 | 5.5% | 233 | 0.47% | 350 | 0.71% |
| All ages | 235 | 359.4 | 100% | 4270 | 0.78% | 6034 | 1.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| November 21 2020 | 351169 | 2073860 | 15734 | 3005 | 65278 | 88039 |
| November 22 2020 | 354676 | 2085252 | 15823 | 3005 | 61288 | 87266 |
| November 23 2020 | 357771 | 2094448 | 15930 | 3011 | 56606 | 86001 |
| November 24 2020 | 363973 | 2104756 | 16209 | 3115 | 57662 | 85130 |
| November 25 2020 | 369442 | 2116549 | 16457 | 3178 | 57073 | 83551 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 193 | 229.1 | 4.2% | 2404 | 0.38% | 3430 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 547 | 596.7 | 11% | 6281 | 0.83% | 9388 | 1.24% |
| 20-29 | 1041 | 912.3 | 16.9% | 9628 | 1.27% | 14252 | 1.88% |
| 30-39 | 897 | 852.7 | 15.9% | 9091 | 1.2% | 13202 | 1.74% |
| 40-49 | 793 | 786.4 | 14.8% | 8419 | 1.2% | 12247 | 1.75% |
| 50-59 | 856 | 825.4 | 15.5% | 8867 | 1.09% | 13073 | 1.6% |
| 60-69 | 581 | 612.4 | 11.4% | 6511 | 0.86% | 9499 | 1.25% |
| 70+ | 561 | 557.1 | 10.3% | 5872 | 0.92% | 8460 | 1.32% |
| All ages | 5469 | 5372.1 | 100% | 57073 | 0.98% | 83551 | 1.43% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209 | 219.8 | 259 | 125.3 | 104.1 | 33.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 211.7 | 94 | 103.6 | 43.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 299.3 | 75 | 85.7 | 48.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153.8 | 104.5 | 182.8 | 115.1 | 119.3 | 31.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110.4 | 149.9 | 135 | 359.4 | 439.1 | 21.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 143.5 | 124 | 188.3 | 5372.1 | 6168.7 | 32.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 5.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.49 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3017"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges